Economic Reports ( GDP Report and Inflation Report)

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate continued its downward trajectory in November 2025, easing to 14.45% relative to the 16.05% recorded in October 2025. On a year-on-year basis, inflation fell sharply by 20.15% from 34.60% recorded in November 2024, largely reflecting a base-year adjustment. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 130.5 points in November from 128.9 in October, representing a 1.6-point increase. On a month-on-month basis, inflation rose to 1.22% in November, which was 0.29% higher than the rate recorded in October 2025 (0.93%), showing a higher rate of price increases. The 12-month average inflation rate stood at 20.41% for the twelve months ending November 2025, down from 32.77% in November 2024, signaling sustained broad-based disinflation.

Disaggregating the inflation, urban inflation eased to 13.61% year-on-year in November 2025, a significant decline from 37.10% in the same month of 2024. However, it eased month-on-month to 0.95% from 1.14% in October. The 12-month average urban inflation rate also dropped to 20.80% in November 2025, which was 14.27% points lower compared to the 35.07% reported in November 2024. Similarly, rural inflation stood at 15.15% year-on-year, lower by 17.12% compared to the 32.27% recorded in November 2024. On a monthly basis, it rose to 1.88% from 0.45% in October, while the 12-month average rural inflation rate declined to 19.46% from 30.71% a year earlier (November 2024).Food inflation, a key component of headline inflation, dropped markedly to 11.08% year-on-year from 39.93% in November 2024, partly due to the base-year effect. On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in November 2025 was 1.13%, up by 1.5% compared to October 2025 (-0.37%). The increase can be attributed to the rate of increase in the average prices of Tomatoes (Dried), Cassava Tuber, Periwinkle (Shelled), Grounded Pepper, Eggs, Crayfish, Melon (Egusi) Unshelled, Oxtail, Onions (Fresh), etc. The 12-month average food inflation rate also fell to 19.68% for the twelve months ending November 2025, compared with the 38.67% recorded in November 2024.

The “All items less farm produces and energy” or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produces and energy, stood at 18.04% in November 2025 on a year-on-year basis, showing a decline of 10.71% when compared to the 28.75% recorded in November 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the Core Inflation rate was 1.28% in November 2025, down by 0.14% compared to October 2025 (1.42%). The average twelve-month annual inflation rate was 20.76% for the twelve months ending November 2025, which was 5.88% points lower than the 26.64% recorded in November 2024.

Dear Clients, Please find here our 2025 outlook for investment opportunities

Dear Investors,

Global growth is expected to taper down to 2.9% in 2024, from 3.5% in 2022 and 3.0% in 2023, according to the IMF. The World Bank made a less than optimistic 2024 outlook, forecasting that global GDP growth would slow for the third year in a row to 2.4%, which will leave poverty reduction goals at risk. Advanced economies are expected to slow from 2.6% in 2022 to 1.5% in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024, with a modest decline in growth from 4.1% in 2022 to 4.0% in 2023 and 2024 in both Emerging and Developing Economies. For Nigeria, a GDP growth of 3.1% is anticipated for 2024, up from a 2.9% growth projection in 2023. Growth in the Nigerian economy continues to stabilize, as the effect of key reforms unfolds in 2023 and 2024.

We anticipate that the Nigerian equities will sustain a positive return in 2024. However, while rallies are expected to continue until the middle of February 2024, by the end of Q1, the ASI which reached 94,538.12 on 19th January, is expected to recede below the 80, 000 mark. This potential downturn would be attributed to an expected interest rate hike by the central bank, which might exacerbate borrowing conditions for firms. Additionally, the persistent inflationary pressures continuing to impact households may result in investors depleting their portfolios. Subpar dividend declaration by companies may dampen optimism in the market.

Stocks selected in our portfolio are fundamentally sound, stable and have produced higher risk adjusted returns in the past few years. The rally in December/January 2024 has pushed some of these stocks above their intrinsic value and exit prices. We advise investors to sell at the current market high and buy back in February/ March when we expect a dip in the market and hold their positions till year 2024. Our weekly reports will provide further guidance on actions to take along the year.

Please click here to read more on our Economic Outlook for 2024.

Dear Client/Reader, 

2023 is a year of massive uncertainties both locally and globally. However, within risk and uncertainties lies opportunities. Our Outlook for 2023 helps you identify where the opportunities lie in 2023.

Below is an excerpt of the executive summary:

The Russia-Ukraine war shaped the global scene in 2022, pushing on commodities prices, and impacting price levels. Especially the shortage of gas supply from Russia to Europe pushed inflation rates to decades-high levels in various countries. As a result, monetary policy authorities were not sparing in their move to fight rising prices, hiking rates aggressively. From various indications including gradually abating inflation and monetary policy tones, monetary pivoting is underway. Nonetheless, the effect of the accumulated rate hikes is expected to lead to a slowdown in some economies, including China which is still battling with Covid-19 cases and the property sector crisis. 

Global growth is projected to slow from 6.00% in 2021 to 3.20% in 2022 and 2.70% in 2023 according to IMF on the back of slower growth across both the Advanced Economies and the Emerging and Developing Economies. Global inflation is expected to rise from 4.70% in 2021 to 8.8% in 2022 but to decline to 6.5% in 2023 and to 4.1% by 2024.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently revised its Nigerian real GDP growth forecast downwards to 3% (from 3.2% earlier expected) while the World Bank also slashed the same to 2.9% from an earlier projection of 3.20%. The reasons for the slower growth projections are similar: a slowdown in agricultural output due to the flooding, the impact of the CBN’s hawkish monetary policy on the real sector, as well as the lingering FX issues.

The equities market presents attractive opportunities for investors in form of capital appreciation and dividend return. Nigerian stocks are currently undervalued and present an opportunity for growth in the short to medium term. However, the election is just around the corner and it may trigger some short term downside risks. We believe stocks in the Financial Services (mostly Banks), ICT, Agriculture, Consumer Goods and the Industrial sectors present strong prospects for growth given their resilience to the economic recession.

In 2023, the outlook is for fixed income yields to increase, although at a gradual pace. The reason is due to the offsetting effects of the expected higher FGN borrowings as a result of higher budget deficit, and the expected high system liquidity from coupon payments and bond maturity, especially in the first half of the year.

See below our model portfolio for 2023 (Find the detailed analysis of the instruments in the full report).

Find attached here the Full Report.

Thank you.  

Dear Client/Reader,

The National Bureau of Statistics just reported that the consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased to 18.17% (year-on-year) in March 2021. This is 82 basis points higher than the rate recorded in February 2021 (17.33%).

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending March 2021 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 14.55%, representing a 0.50 percentage point increase over 14.05% recorded in February 2021.

Food Index Rose to 22.95%

Food index rose to 22.95% in March 2021. The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending March 2021 over the previous twelve-month average was 17.93 percent, 0.68 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in February 2021 (17.25%). This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Meat, Fruits, Vegetable, Fish and Oils and Fats. On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased to 1.90% in March 2021, up by 0.01 percent points from 1.89% recorded in February 2021.

Core Index stood at 12.67%

Price movements recorded by the Core index stood at 12.67% (year -on-year) in March 2021, up by 29 basis points as against 12.38% recorded in February 2021. The highest increases were recorded in prices of Passenger transport by air, Hospital services, Passenger transport by road, Pharmaceutical products, Paramedical services, Vehicle spare parts, Dental Services, Motor cars,  Maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment and Hairdressing saloons and personal grooming establishment.

Urban Index increased to 18.76%

The Urban index increased to 18.76% (year-on-year) in March 2021 compared to 17.92% recorded in February 2021, while the Rural index increased to 17.60% (year -on-year) in March 2021 as against 16.77% in February 2021. On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose to 1.60% in March 2021, up by 0.02 percent compared to the rate recorded in February 2021, while the rural index also rose to 1.52% in March 2021, up by 0.02 percent above the rate that was recorded in February 2021 (1.50%).

Regards.

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.11%(year-on-year) in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing the first positive quarterly growth in the last three quarters. Though weak, the positive growth reflects the gradual return of economic activities following the easing of restricted movements and limited local and international commercial activities in the preceding quarters.In the fourth quarter of 2020, an average daily oil production of 1.56 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded. This was lower than the daily average production of 2.00mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2019 by -0.44mbpd and the third quarter of 2020 by –0.11mbpd. The non-oil sector grew by 1.69% in real terms in Q4 2020, slower than the 2.26% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019, but better than the –2.51% growth rate recorded in the preceding quarter. For the full year of 2020 however, the non-oil sector grew –1.25% compared to 2.06% in 2019. Growth in the sector was driven by Information and Communication (Telecommunications & Broadcasting). Other driver were Agriculture (Crop Production), Real Estate, Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco), Mining and Quarrying (Quarrying and other Minerals), and Construction, accounting for positive GDP.
Please find here the GDP Q4 2020 report.

Dear Client/Reader,

The National Bureau of Statistics just reported that the consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased to 16.47% (year-on-year) in January 2021. This is 72 basis points higher than the rate recorded in December 2020 (15.75%).

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending January 2021 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 13.62%, representing a 0.37 percentage point increase over 13.25% recorded in December 2020.

Food Index Rose to 20.57%

Food index rose to 20.57% in January 2021. The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending January 2021 over the previous twelve-month average was 16.66 percent, 0.49 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in December 2020 (16.17%). This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Meat, Fruits, Vegetable, Fish and Oils and Fats. On month-on-month basis, the food sub-index decreased to 1.83% in January 2021, down by 0.22 percent points from 2.05% recorded in December 2020.

Core Index stood at 11.85%

Price movements recorded by the Core index stood at 11.85% (year -on-year) in January 2021, up by 48 basis points as against 11.37% recorded in December 2020. The highest increases were recorded in prices of Passenger transport by air, Medical services, Hospital services, Passenger transport by road, Pharmaceutical products, Paramedical services, Repair of furniture, Vehicle spare parts, Motor cars, Miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling, Maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment.

Urban Index increased to 17.03%

The Urban index increased to 17.03% (year-on-year) in January 2021 compared to 16.33% recorded in December 2020, while the Rural index increased to 15.92% (year -on-year) in January 2021 as against 15.20% in December 2020. On a month-on-month basis, the urban index dropped to 1.52% in January 2021, down by 0.13 percent compared to the rate recorded in December 2020, while the rural index also dropped to 1.46%in January 2021, down by 0.12 percent below the rate that was recorded in December 2020 (1.58%).

Regards.

Dear Client/Reader,

The National Bureau of Statistics just reported that the consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 13.22% (year-on-year) in August 2020. This is 40 basis points higher than the rate recorded in July 2020 (12.82%).

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending August 2020 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 12.23%, indicating a 0.18% increase from 12.05% recorded in July 2020.

Food Index Rose by 16.00%

Food index rose by 16.00% in August 2020. The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending August 2020 over the previous twelve-month average was 14.87%, 0.24% higher than the average annual rate of change recorded in July 2020 (14.63%). This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Meat, Fish, Fruits, Oils and fats and Vegetables. On a  month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.67% in August 2020, up by 0.15% from 1.52% recorded in July 2020.

Core Index stood at 10.52%

Price movements recorded by the Core index stood at 10.52% (year -on-year) in August 2020, up by 42 basis points as against 10.10% recorded in July 2020. The highest increases were recorded in prices of Passenger transport by air, Hospital services, Medical services, Pharmaceutical products, Maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, Vehicle spare parts, Motor cars, Passenger transport by road, Miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling, Repair of furniture and Paramedical services. On a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 1.05% in August 2020, up by 30 basis points from 0.75% recorded in July 2020.

Urban Index increased by 13.83%

The Urban index increased by 13.83% (year-on-year) in August 2020 compared to 13.40% recorded in July 2020, while the Rural index increased by 12.65% (year -on-year) in August 2020 as against 12.28% in July 2020. On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 1.42% in August 2020, up by 0.15% from 1.27% recorded in July 2020, while the rural index also rose by 1.27% in August 2020, up by 0.04% from the rate recorded in July 2020 (1.23%).

Regards,