Dear Client/Reader,
Global Economy
- Oil prices steadied on Friday as swelling inventories depressed sentiment despite widespread expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia would agree some form of production cut as the two global oil benchmarks, North Sea Brent and U.S. crude, have had their weakest month for more than 10 years in November, losing 28 percent and 30 percent respectively as global supply has outstripped demand.
- Euro zone inflation slowed as expected in November, while core inflation readings were below market expectations, supporting European Central Bank policymakers who favour a cautious exit from monetary stimulus.
- Lending to British consumers slowed again last month to its weakest rate in more than three years, but there was a pick-up in the housing market with a jump in mortgage approvals, as reported by bank of England.
- Japanese manufacturing activity expanded at the slowest pace in two years in November and new orders contracted for the first time since September 2016, a preliminary survey showed, raising doubt about growth prospects for the current quarter.
U.S. – U.S. consumer spending increased by the most in seven months in October, but underlying price pressures slowed, with an inflation measure tracked by the Federal Reserve posting its smallest annual increase since February.
Equities Market- The Nigerian equities market again depreciated at the end of the week, as the ASI decreased by 2.54% w/w to close at 30,874.17 points, while the year-to-date returns settled at -19.27%.
The current low prices of stocks still provide good buying opportunities in the market. Some of our recommended stocks are mentioned below;
FCMB – FCMB Plc. results for 9M’2018 showed an impressive PBT growth of 121% y/y from N6.7 bn in 9M’17 to N14.8 bn. The key driver behind the PBT growth was the growth of 165% y/y in trading income and 152% improvement in other income on the back of massive gains in foreign exchange transactions that increased from N428 mn in 9M’17 to N9 bn in the current period, which were strong enough to offset the increase recorded in operating expense by 15% y/y. Non-interest income (NIR) also increased by 66% y/y to N37.5 bn (9M’17; N22.5 bn) while also noting a decline of 9% in interest expenses which reduced to N42.2 bn (9M’17; N46.4 bn). Consequently, Earnings per share spiked massively by 104% y/y from N0.28 in 9M’17 to N0.57 in the current period. FCMB has CAR of 17.4% higher than tier 2 minimum of 12.5%, BVPS of 9.04, P/BV of 0.14X, P/E of 2.54X against banking average of 1.01x and 3.04x. FCMB currently has an upside potential of about 70% from our estimated intrinsic value of N2.47, we therefore maintain our medium to long term “BUY” recommendation on the stock.
SEPLAT – Seplat 9M’2018 result showed revenue increased by 104% to N173bn as against N85bn in 9M’2017. The substantial rise in revenue was due to increase of 99% and 48% in crude oil and gas sales while Cost of sales also increased from N47 bn to N80 bn. Despite the rise in cost of sales, gross profit increased by 146% from N38 bn to N93.5 bn. The company maintained the top line impressive performance as PAT stands at N27.9bn as against N1.6bn loss in 9M’2017. With the recent renewal of its operating license coupled with continuous plan of the company to boost profitability and increase operation by drilling its first well in its OML 53 asset and to redeploy rigs into it other oil fields at OMLs 4, 38 and 41, we are of the view that Seplat will maintain its impressive performance for FY’2018. With the current price at its 52 week low of N589.50, we thereby place a medium to long term “BUY” on the stock of Seplat Plc with an estimated intrinsic value of N744.69.
Please find attached our Stock Recommendation for this week, ending 7th December, 2018.
Thank you.
Weekly Report and Stock Recommendation 03122018