Weekly Report and Stock Recommendation

Weekly Market Review & Stock Recommendations -March 13, 2023

Dear Client/Reader,

Global Economic Roundup

Oil Prices Are Set To Rise Throughout 2023

Crude oil prices started last week with a loss. The reason for that initial weekly loss came down to overall global economic growth pessimism and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates, making the dollar more expensive and sapping demand for dollar-priced crude. But by the end of Monday, oil prices had rebounded and were trading higher. The reason is that comments from attendees at the Cambridge Energy Research Associates Week (CERAWeeek) industry conference suggested that supply will tighten before too long. Just another week in oil, some would say, and indeed, oil prices fluctuate constantly, to such an extent it is extremely difficult to predict them with any accuracy, especially over a shorter period of time. Yet it does bear pointing out that most forecasters seem to expect higher prices for oil later this year. There appears to be broad consensus on this. Some, such as Forbes’ Bill Sarubbi, note the technical data of oil trading to suggest prices are going to go higher. In a recent story, Sarubbi said that historical data shows oil prices tend to rise between March and May most of the time, so it makes sense to expect them to rise this year as well. Others, such as Refinitiv, the data analytics firm, single out two factors that will drive prices on the supply and demand sides, respectively: Russia and China. And Refinitiv expects Brent crude to rise above $100 per barrel by the end of the year and average $90 for the full year 2023.

Eurozone Economy Stalled in Q4

The Eurozone economy failed to grow in the final quarter of 2022, compared with preliminary estimates of 0.1% growth and upwardly revised 0.4% expansion in the previous three-month period. Household consumption slumped by 0.9% and gross fixed capital formation tumbled 3.6%, as stubbornly high inflation, rising borrowing costs, and supply chain bottlenecks hit activity and demand. Meanwhile, government spending rose by 0.7% and net external demand contributed positively to the GDP as exports inched 0.1% higher and imports were 1.9% lower. Inventory changes have also added 0.1pp to the GDP. Amongst the bloc’s largest economies, the GDP grew in the Netherlands, Spain, and France, but contracted in Germany and Italy.

CBN’s Open Banking Could Spur Tighter Competition 

In a recent circular, the Central Bank of Nigeria issued operational guidelines for open banking in Nigeria. The new policy allows financial service providers to access the banking history of prospective customers with other banks. This would be through application programming interfaces (APIs), and with the explicit consent of the customers. It basically allows customers to share their banking data with other financial service providers, enabling them to access a wider range of products and services. Analysts say the initiative would further ensure the deepening and stability in the nation’s financial system. Through the Open Banking Registry which the CBN would establish and manage, the regulatory oversight would be enhanced. The most important gain derivable from the new data-sharing policy is the degree of competition and a greater level of efficiency that would be promoted among banks. While the recent circular on Open banking has generated interest among fintech entrepreneurs nevertheless, for open banking to function well, developers will need to find solutions to integration issues that may make it impossible to communicate financial data securely and seamlessly.

Some of our recommended stocks are mentioned below;

FIDSON:

Fidson FY 2022 results showed an increase in revenue by 31.67% from N30.86bn in FY 2021 to N40.63bn in FY 2022. Operating profit advanced from N5.86 bn in FY 2021 to N7.38bn in FY 2022, reflecting an increase of 25.93%. Profit before tax went up by 20.45% from N4.71bn FY 2021 to N5.68bn in the current period. Profit after tax grew by 18.65% from N6.09bn in FY 2021 to N7.22bn in FY 2022. EPS grew by 1.69% to N1.81 in FY 2022 from N1.78 in FY 2021. Fidson has a BVPS of N7.34, P/BV of 1.34x, and P/E ratio of 5.44x.

MAY & BAKER:

May & Baker FY 2022 results showed an increase in revenue by 20.39% from N11.90bn in FY 2021 to N14.32bn in FY 2022. Operating profit advanced from N1.70bn in FY 2021 to N2.26bn in FY 2022, reflecting an increase of 32.86%. Finance cost increased by 23.92% to N330 million in FY 2022 from N266 million and interest income increased by 332.03% from N59million in FY 2021 to N256 million in FY 2022. PBT went up by 48.03% from N1.46bn in FY 2021 to N2.16bn in the current period. PAT grew by 64.90% from N1.04 billion in FY 2021 to N1.73 billion in FY 2022, despite a 4.94% surge in taxes. EPS grew by 63.93% to N1.00 in FY 2022 from N0.61 in FY 2021. May & Baker has a BVPS of N4.74, P/BV ratio of 0.95x and P/E ratio of 4.5x.

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Weekly Market Review & Stock Recommendations -March 6, 2023

Dear Client/Reader,

Global Economic Roundup

Shell Is Reviewing Its Plan To Reduce Oil Production This Decade

Shell’s plan to have its oil production decline by up to 2% each year this decade is currently under review, the new CEO Wael Sawan told The Times in an interview published on Friday, adding that he is a firm believer of the statement “don’t deny people energy.” Back in 2021, Shell said that its oil production peaked in 2019 and is set for a continual decline over the next three decades as it looks toward the renewables side of the business. However, the post-Covid rebound in oil and gas demand and the Russian invasion of Ukraine with the subsequent major dislocation of energy the trade has clearly shown “the fragility of the energy system when we starve it of the supply that is required,” Sawan told The Times. He said that he’s of a firm view that the world will need oil and gas for a long time to come. As such, cutting oil and gas production is not healthy.

2-year Treasury yield reaches highs not seen in more than a decade

U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Thursday as investors considered the prospect of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and awaited fresh economic data. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was up by 7 basis points to 4.066%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 4.889%. Earlier in the session, it traded at its highest level since July 2007. Investors considered the likelihood of further interest rate hikes and rates staying higher for longer. A surge in labor costs and a pullback in jobless claims reported early Thursday point to the likelihood that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate another 0.25 percentage point later this month. At its latest meeting, the central bank had hiked rates by 25 basis points. This marked a slowdown compared to the previous five increases which included four consecutive 75 basis point hikes followed by a 50 basis point hike. Many investors have been concerned about the pace of rate hikes dragging the U.S. economy into a recession.

Understanding the Tinubu Presidency Objectives and the Nigeria Question

Nigeria’s ruling party candidate, Bola Tinubu, was on Wednesday declared the winner of the presidential election, after defeating the candidates of the two main opposition parties. Analysts describe the poll as the most keenly contested since the country returned to Democratic rule in 1999. The announcement of final results by the Chairman of the Independent Nigerian Election Commission (INEC), Prof. Mahmud Yakubu early on Wednesday, has however been met with contestation by members of the opposition who had staged a workout from the National Collation Centre in Abuja after concerns of irregularities were unaddressed. But judging by his manifesto, Analysts say that the centerpiece of Tinubu’s fiscal and economic policy would be to bring about fast-growing, premised on industrialization and economic diversification. Tinubu’s administration seeks to address the country’s high unemployment and poverty by targeting an overly ambitious 12% annual growth rate given that the country’s long-run growth rate is only around 5%. While the new administration would deploy tax policies in line with the Trickle-down theory, Analysts believe this would raise big questions about the Federal Government’s (FG) ailing finances. Analysts recommend that the next administration must prioritize opening the capital account by offering opportunities for investment in the many redundant assets of the country as well as issuing new licenses for Greenfield investment in critical sectors. This way fiscal and external sector liquidity can improve significantly with positive knock-on effects on employment and domestic inflation.

Some of our recommended stocks are mentioned below;

MTNN:

MTNN Plc FY 2022 results showed an increase in revenue by 21.64% from ₦1.65 trn in FY 2021 to ₦2.01 trn in FY 2022. Operating profit advanced from ₦584.74bn in FY 2021 to ₦733.29bn in FY 2022, reflecting an increase of 25.40%. Profit before tax grew by 22.28% from ₦436.68bn in FY 2021 to ₦533.97bn in the current period, despite a 33.19% increase in finance costs. Profit after tax rose by 20.16% from ₦298.65bn in FY 2021 to ₦358.87bn in FY 2022. EPS increased by 21.27% to ₦17.79 in FY 2022 from ₦14.67 in FY 2021. MTNN has a BVPS of ₦9.14, P/BV of 26.81x, and P/E ratio of 13.71x.

ZENITH:

Zenithbank Plc is projected to have a FY 2022 revenue of N832.32bn, up by 19.51% from N696.45bn in FY 2021. Profit after tax is estimated to grow from N160.59bn in FY 2021 to N191.92bn in FY 2022 with an EPS of N6.11.

Zenithbank Plc’s Q3 2022 results showed that gross earnings advanced by 19.65% to ₦620.57 bn in Q3 2022 from ₦518.67 bn in Q3 2021. Net interest income grew by 20.52% from ₦234.75 bn in Q3 2021 to ₦282.91bn in Q3 2022, supported by a 26.52% rise in interest income. Profit before tax advanced by 12.65% from ₦179.81 bn recorded in Q3 2021 to ₦202.55 bn in the current period. This is attributable to the 0.86% increase in trading income and 27.79% increase in net fees and commission income. Profit after tax went up by 8.55% from ₦160.59 bn in Q3 2021 to ₦174.33bn in Q3 2022 after a 46.85% increase in income tax expenses. Earnings per share advanced by 8.61% from ₦5.11 in Q3 2021 to ₦5.55 in the current period. Consequently, Zenith has a BVPS of ₦37.81, P/BV of 0.70x and P/E ratio of 3.59x.

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Weekly Market Review & Stock Recommendations -February 13, 2023

Dear Client/Reader,

Global Economic Roundup

Crude Oil Bounces Back As Earthquake In Turkey Creates Supply Concerns

Oil prices are on the rise, with WTI and Brent benchmarks both up around 3% on Tuesday following the devastating earthquake in Turkey. By 12:17 pm ET, WTI had risen $2.54 to $76.55 per barrel—a 3.43% rise on the day. The Brent benchmark was trading up $2.31 per barrel, to $83.30—a 2.85% climb. China’s reopening progress is also pressuring prices upward as the market eyes a demand boost from its zero-Covid transition. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has lifted the price of its flagship crude oil for Asian buyers, signaling that OPEC’s leader also views China’s reopening as legitimate. On the supply side, oil export disruptions have created a stir in the market following a pair of major earthquakes that resulted in the deaths of more than 5,000, and Norway’s shutdown of its Phase 1 535,000 bpd Johan Sverdrup oilfield due to a technical fault in a cooling system. The 1 million barrel per day Ceyhan oil terminal in southern Turkey stopped operations on Monday, according to Tribeca Shipping Agency, who added that as a whole, the ports in southern Turkey have been affected by the earthquake. Oil loadings were expected to resume today, but inclement weather caused a disruption in berthing. Key oil pipelines in the country managed to escape damage. 

Black women are gaining ground in the labor market but still face unique barriers

A decrease in the unemployment rate of Black women is heartening, but labor experts warn that the trend shouldn’t create any false notions about equity in the workforce. The unemployment rate for the entire Black population has avoided ticking up since August, coming in at 5.4% in January, according to seasonally adjusted data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics two weeks ago. January’s drop in Black unemployment was propelled by gains made by Black women, whose unemployment rate excluding teenagers dropped to 4.7% in January from 5.5% in December. Black men, by comparison, saw unemployment tick up to 5.3% in January from 5.1% in December. Both the rate of unemployment for all Black people and for women specifically are at their lowest levels in more than a year. The last time the Black unemployment rate was below 5.5% was in September 2019, while Black women last had a sub-5% unemployment rate in November 2021. The unemployment rates of white, Asian and Hispanic/Latino workers all increased from December to January. Still, Black workers have the highest unemployment rate when compared with white, Asian and Hispanic/Latino workers. 

Bamboo secures digital broker license from SEC 

Bamboo Systems Technology Limited (Bamboo), an online brokerage firm, on Thursday, announced that it has been granted a digital sub-broker license from Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). A statement issued by the firm said the new license allows the company to operate in the Nigerian capital market and include Nigerian securities on its platform. “SEC’s issuance of the license to Bamboo ensures oversight of the relationship with its sponsoring broker, Lambeth Capital, while also empowering it to enter into partnerships with multiple brokers to serve its clients,” the statement said. It noted that the license will also enable Bamboo to deepen its relationships with financial service providers to offer its API services. Established in 2019, Bamboo is an online brokerage app that allows Africans to invest in real-time in local and foreign asset classes. On the app, users can invest fractionable amounts in their favourite publicly listed US companies from Tesla to Apple, ETFs, mutual funds, or fixed-income products. According to the statement, Bamboo is focused on its commitment to best practices and allowing its retail investors the ability to trade local securities on the Nigerian Exchange Group. In 2021, the firm said it began the rigorous application process for the SEC’s digital sub-broker license which was introduced that year. This, the brokerage firm said, included a thorough examination of its finances and governance process. Commenting on the development, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Co-founder of Bamboo, Richmond Bassey, said: “We are thrilled to reach this important milestone and are fully committed to our obligations as registered digital brokers.” Since the launch of Bamboo, he said they work to provide the best technology solutions, backed by industry best practices, to allow Nigerian retail investors to access an unprecedented number of digital securities to build long-term wealth. “We are grateful for our collaboration with the SEC, which has shown its dedication to protect investors while allowing for innovation to flourish,” Mr Bassey said.

Some of our recommended stocks are mentioned below;

MTNN:

MTNN Plc FY 2022 results showed an increase in revenue by 21.64% from ₦1.65 trn in FY 2021 to ₦2.01 trn in FY 2022. Operating profit advanced from ₦584.74bn in FY 2021 to ₦733.29bn in FY 2022, reflecting an increase of 25.40%. Profit before tax grew by 22.28% from ₦436.68bn in FY 2021 to ₦533.97bn in the current period, despite a 33.19% increase in finance costs. Profit after tax rose by 20.16% from ₦298.65bn in FY 2021 to ₦358.87bn in FY 2022. EPS increased by 21.27% to
₦17.79 in FY 2022 from ₦14.67 in FY 2021. MTNN has a BVPS of ₦9.14, P/BV of 26.68x and P/E ratio of 13.71x.

NB:

Nigerian Breweries Plc is projected to have a FY 2022 revenue of N576.07bn, up by 31.74% from N437.28bn in FY 2021. Profit after tax is estimated to grow from N12.67bn in FY 2021 to N16.70bn in FY 2022 with an EPS of N2.56

Nigerian Breweries Plc Q3 2022 results showed an increase in revenue by 27.21% from ₦309.28bn in Q3 2021 to ₦393.45bn in Q3 2022. Operating profit advanced from ₦24.74bn in Q3 2021 to ₦35.39bn in Q3 2022, reflecting an increase of 43.06%. Profit before tax grew by 49.89% from ₦12.74bn in Q3 2021 to ₦19.09bn in the current period, as finance income grew by 172.63% and finance cost dropped by 48.82%. Profit after tax rose by 79.58% from ₦8.22bn in Q3 2021 to ₦14.76bn in Q3 2022. EPS increased by 78.43% to ₦1.82 in Q3 2022 from ₦1.02 in Q3 2021. Nigerian Breweries has a BVPS of ₦23.06, P/BV of 1.76x and P/E ratio of 16.75x

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Weekly Market Review & Stock Recommendations -February 6, 2023

Dear Client/Reader,

Global Economic Roundup

OPEC+ To Leave Oil Production Quotas Unchanged

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the OPEC+ group recommended that no changes be made to the current oil production quotas during a meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected. The members of the JMMC “reaffirmed their commitment to the DoC which extends to the end of 2023 as agreed in the 33rd OPEC and Non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) on 5th of October 2022,” OPEC said in a brief statement after the meeting. The panel is meeting next on April 3, 2023. The no-change in policy was widely expected by the market, considering the uncertainties in both supply and demand in the coming months. Analysts expected OPEC+ to adopt a wait-and-see approach amid significant uncertainties going forward. Going forward, OPEC, OPEC+, and market participants will look to China and Russia for the most immediate clues on global demand and supply.

Important wage inflation measure for the Fed rose less than expected in Q4

Employment costs increased at a slower than expected pace in the fourth quarter, indicating that inflation pressures on business owners are at least leveling off. The employment cost index, a barometer the Federal Reserve watches closely for inflation signs, increased 1% in the October-to-December period, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. That was a bit below the 1.1% Dow Jones estimate and less the 1.2% reading in the third quarter. It also was the lowest quarterly gain in a year. Wages and salaries for the period also rose 1%, down 0.3 percentage point, while the cost of benefits increased just 0.8%, down from 1% in the previous period. Compensation for government workers grew at a much slower pace comparatively in the quarter, slowing to a 1% gain from 1.9% in Q3. Fed officials consider the ECI an important inflation gauge because it adjusts for occupations that are in higher demand and for outsized wage gains in particular industries, such as those that were most affected by the pandemic. 

Dangote, Sinoma sign agreement on new cement plant in Ogun

Dangote Industries Limited (DIL) has signed an agreement with China Sinoma International Engineering to build a six million tons per annum cement plant in Itori, Ogun State. The agreement was signed by the Chairman of Dangote Cement Plc, Aliko Dangote alongside the Group Executive Director, Strategy, Capital Projects & Portfolio Development, DIL, Devakumar Edwin, while China Sinoma Engineering was represented by its Group President, Yin Zhisong, and the company’s Chairman, Liu Renyue. Mr Dangote speaking at the signing ceremony, said that new integrated cement plant at completion will strengthen the local production capacity of Dangote Cement, bringing its local capacity to 41.25 million tons per annum and total African capacity to 57.6 million tons per annum. He said the Itori Cement Plant will also increase Nigeria’s capacity to export cement, thereby enabling more diversification and foreign exchange inflows for the economy. According to Mr Dangote, the project is further expected to develop the domestic economy through creation of thousands of indirect and direct jobs and drive economic development in the Itori axis. Ancillary businesses, he stated will be drawn to the axis, who will be seeking to take advantage of the location of the cement plant to provide goods and services to staff, contractors and other stakeholders.

Some of our recommended stocks are mentioned below;

GTCO:

GTCO Plc is projected to have a FY 2022 revenue of N312.64bn, up by 17.14% from N266.89bn in FY 2021. Profit after tax is estimated to grow from N174.83bn in FY 2021 to N204.81bn in FY 2022with an EPS of N6.96

Gtco Plc Q3 2022 results showed that interest income advanced by 19.20% from N195.03bn in Q3 2021 to N232.49 bn in the current period. Net interest income went up by 16.41% from N162.94 bn in Q3 2021 to N189.69 bn in Q3 2022. Profit before tax grew by 11.73% from N151.91bn in Q3 2021 to N169.72bn in the current period due to 18.27% rise in fees and commission income and 42.32% rise Net gains on financial instruments. Profit after tax went up by 0.73% from N129.40bn in Q3 2021 to N130.35bn in the current period. Consequently, Gtco recorded a 0.22% rise in earnings per share from N4.54 in Q3 2021 to N4.55 in Q3 2022. Gtco Plc has a BVPS of N29.66, P/BV of 0.82x and P/E ratio of 4.03x.

FIDSON:

Fidson Plc is projected to have a FY 2022 revenue of N40.69bn, up by 31.86% from N30.86bn in FY 2021. Profit after tax is estimated to grow from N3.72bn in FY 2021 to N4.91bn in FY 2022 with an EPS of N2.34

Fidson Q3 2022 results showed an increase in revenue by 44.48% from N21.75bn in Q3 2021 to N31.43bn in Q3 2022. Operating profit advanced from N4.29 bn in Q3 2021 to N6.35bn in Q3 2022, reflecting an increase of 48.03%. Profit before tax went up by 49.06% from N3.42bn Q3 2021 to N5.10bn in the current period. Profit after tax grew by 47.97% from N2.32bn in Q3 2021 to N3.44bn in Q3 2022. EPS grew by 35.14% to N1.50 in Q3 2022 from N1.11 in Q3 2021. Fidson has a BVPS of N5.92, P/BV of 1.67x and P/E ratio of 4.95x.

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Weekly Market Review & Stock Recommendations -January 30, 2023

Dear Client/Reader,

Global Economic Roundup

Big Oil Set to Report Record $200 billion Profits for 2022

The five biggest oil majors in the world are expected to report record profits for 2022 in the coming days, for around $200 billion in combined yearly earnings thanks to the jump in oil and gas prices last year. This year, earnings at ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies are set to be around a quarter lower than the combined profits for 2022, but they will still be a whopping $150 billion for 2023, analysts say. The record quarterly earnings which the majors reported for the second and third quarters of 2022 have already drawn intense criticism from the White House, which has scrambled to have gasoline prices down from the record levels seen in June. The Biden Administration has accused Big Oil of “war profiteering” and has called on companies to invest in more supply or “face higher taxes.” In Europe, the record earnings are already subject to windfall taxes, which ExxonMobil has challenged in court. 

U.S. Unemployment System still Plagued by Delays 3 Years after Covid-era Downturn

These days the U.S. unemployment system is somewhat of an anomaly. Almost three years after the Covid-19 pandemic caused the worst jobless crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression, unemployment has recovered to near-historic lows. Applications for unemployment insurance have been at or below their pre-pandemic trend for the better part of a year. Yet Americans who need jobless benefits aren’t getting them quickly — a dynamic at odds with an apparent lack of stress on the system. The federal government considers a first payment “timely” if states issue funds within 21 days of an initial claim for benefits. In March 2020, 97% of payments were timely; today, the share is 78%, on average, according to U.S. Department of Labor data. The Labor Department views an 87% share as the barometer of success for first-payment timeliness.

Experts see improved performance in H2 

Ahead of the general elections, economists and allied professionals are beginning to see improved economic performance in the second half of the year. Some of the experts, who spoke at the yearly Nigeria Economic Outlook organised by First Bank of Nigeria Limited, based their optimism on the forthcoming change in the political leadership, rising confidence in the economy and possible commencement of Dangote Refinery. The projection came ahead of the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting which held on Monday and Tuesday in Abuja. Speaking at the event, the Chief Consultant of B.Adedipe Associates, Dr. Biodun Adedipe, said the assumption of new political leadership would boost confidence and trigger new growth momentum. If nothing else is certain, he said, all the leading presidential candidates have business-friendly manifestoes. “To that extent, we project that there is the likelihood that if any of the candidates get to the office, he is likely going to put a cabinet together before September and start running. If that happens, we will see a second half-year that will be better than the first half-year,” Adedipe said. The economist also projected the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to close last year at about 3.1 per cent with this year’s growth expected to surpass the figure. Besides leadership change, his optimism was informed by the expected impacts of the renewed focus on infrastructure on business performance, the positive signal from purchasing manager index (PMI), possible monetary policy normalisation among others.

Some of our recommended stocks are mentioned below;

NB PLC:

Nigerian Breweries Plc is projected to have a FY 2022 revenue of N576.07bn, up by 31.74% from N437.28bn in FY 2021. Profit after tax is estimated to grow from N12.67bn in FY 2021 to N16.70bn in FY 2022 with an EPS of N2.06

Nigerian Breweries Plc Q3 2022 results showed an increase in revenue by 27.21% from ₦309.28bn in Q3 2021 to ₦393.45bn in Q3 2022. Operating profit advanced from ₦24.74bn in Q3 2021 to ₦35.39bn in Q3 2022, reflecting an increase of 43.06%. Profit before tax grew by 49.89% from ₦12.74bn in Q3 2021 to ₦19.09bn in the current period, as finance income grew by 172.63% and finance cost dropped by 48.82%. Profit after tax rose by 79.58% from ₦8.22bn in Q3 2021 to ₦14.76bn in Q3 2022. EPS increased by 78.43% to ₦1.82 in Q3 2022 from ₦1.02 in Q3 2021. Nigerian Breweries has a BVPS of ₦23.06, P/BV of 1.81x and P/E ratio of 17.22x. 

ACCESSCORP:

Access Holdings Plc is projected to have a FY 2022 revenue of N740.81bn, up by 23.12% from N601.71bn in FY 2021. Profit after tax is estimated to grow from N160..22bn in FY 2021 to N197.26 bn in FY 2022 with an EPS of N5.63

Access Holdings Plc Q3 2022 results showed that interest income advanced by 21.46% from N470.9 bn in Q3 2021 to N571.98 bn in the current period. Net interest income went up by 4.78% from N267.73 bn in Q3 2021 to N280.53 bn in Q3 2022. Profit before tax grew by 8.97% from N135.06 bn in Q3 2021 to N147.18 bn in the current period due to the 36.05% increase in net impairment charges, 17.27% rise in fees and commission expense and 11.62% rise in net foreign exchange gain. Profit after tax went up by 12.54% from N121.88bn in Q3 2021 to N137.17bn in the current period, on the back of a 22.92% fall in income tax expense. Consequently, Access recorded a 12.14% rise in earnings per share from N3.46 in Q3 2021 to N3.88 in Q3 2022. Access Holdings Plc has a BVPS of N29.11, P/BV of 0.31x and P/E ratio of 1.75x.

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Weekly Market Review & Stock Recommendations -January 30, 2023

Dear Client/Reader,

Global Economic Roundup

Big Oil Set to Report Record $200 billion Profits for 2022

The five biggest oil majors in the world are expected to report record profits for 2022 in the coming days, for around $200 billion in combined yearly earnings thanks to the jump in oil and gas prices last year. This year, earnings at ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies are set to be around a quarter lower than the combined profits for 2022, but they will still be a whopping $150 billion for 2023, analysts say. The record quarterly earnings which the majors reported for the second and third quarters of 2022 have already drawn intense criticism from the White House, which has scrambled to have gasoline prices down from the record levels seen in June. The Biden Administration has accused Big Oil of “war profiteering” and has called on companies to invest in more supply or “face higher taxes.” In Europe, the record earnings are already subject to windfall taxes, which ExxonMobil has challenged in court. 

U.S. Unemployment System still Plagued by Delays 3 Years after Covid-era Downturn

These days the U.S. unemployment system is somewhat of an anomaly. Almost three years after the Covid-19 pandemic caused the worst jobless crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression, unemployment has recovered to near-historic lows. Applications for unemployment insurance have been at or below their pre-pandemic trend for the better part of a year. Yet Americans who need jobless benefits aren’t getting them quickly — a dynamic at odds with an apparent lack of stress on the system. The federal government considers a first payment “timely” if states issue funds within 21 days of an initial claim for benefits. In March 2020, 97% of payments were timely; today, the share is 78%, on average, according to U.S. Department of Labor data. The Labor Department views an 87% share as the barometer of success for first-payment timeliness.

Experts see improved performance in H2 

Ahead of the general elections, economists and allied professionals are beginning to see improved economic performance in the second half of the year. Some of the experts, who spoke at the yearly Nigeria Economic Outlook organised by First Bank of Nigeria Limited, based their optimism on the forthcoming change in the political leadership, rising confidence in the economy and possible commencement of Dangote Refinery. The projection came ahead of the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting which held on Monday and Tuesday in Abuja. Speaking at the event, the Chief Consultant of B.Adedipe Associates, Dr. Biodun Adedipe, said the assumption of new political leadership would boost confidence and trigger new growth momentum. If nothing else is certain, he said, all the leading presidential candidates have business-friendly manifestoes. “To that extent, we project that there is the likelihood that if any of the candidates get to the office, he is likely going to put a cabinet together before September and start running. If that happens, we will see a second half-year that will be better than the first half-year,” Adedipe said. The economist also projected the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to close last year at about 3.1 per cent with this year’s growth expected to surpass the figure. Besides leadership change, his optimism was informed by the expected impacts of the renewed focus on infrastructure on business performance, the positive signal from purchasing manager index (PMI), possible monetary policy normalisation among others.

Some of our recommended stocks are mentioned below;

NB PLC:

Nigerian Breweries Plc is projected to have a FY 2022 revenue of N576.07bn, up by 31.74% from N437.28bn in FY 2021. Profit after tax is estimated to grow from N12.67bn in FY 2021 to N16.70bn in FY 2022 with an EPS of N2.06

Nigerian Breweries Plc Q3 2022 results showed an increase in revenue by 27.21% from ₦309.28bn in Q3 2021 to ₦393.45bn in Q3 2022. Operating profit advanced from ₦24.74bn in Q3 2021 to ₦35.39bn in Q3 2022, reflecting an increase of 43.06%. Profit before tax grew by 49.89% from ₦12.74bn in Q3 2021 to ₦19.09bn in the current period, as finance income grew by 172.63% and finance cost dropped by 48.82%. Profit after tax rose by 79.58% from ₦8.22bn in Q3 2021 to ₦14.76bn in Q3 2022. EPS increased by 78.43% to ₦1.82 in Q3 2022 from ₦1.02 in Q3 2021. Nigerian Breweries has a BVPS of ₦23.06, P/BV of 1.81x and P/E ratio of 17.22x. 

ACCESSCORP:

Access Holdings Plc is projected to have a FY 2022 revenue of N740.81bn, up by 23.12% from N601.71bn in FY 2021. Profit after tax is estimated to grow from N160..22bn in FY 2021 to N197.26 bn in FY 2022 with an EPS of N5.63

Access Holdings Plc Q3 2022 results showed that interest income advanced by 21.46% from N470.9 bn in Q3 2021 to N571.98 bn in the current period. Net interest income went up by 4.78% from N267.73 bn in Q3 2021 to N280.53 bn in Q3 2022. Profit before tax grew by 8.97% from N135.06 bn in Q3 2021 to N147.18 bn in the current period due to the 36.05% increase in net impairment charges, 17.27% rise in fees and commission expense and 11.62% rise in net foreign exchange gain. Profit after tax went up by 12.54% from N121.88bn in Q3 2021 to N137.17bn in the current period, on the back of a 22.92% fall in income tax expense. Consequently, Access recorded a 12.14% rise in earnings per share from N3.46 in Q3 2021 to N3.88 in Q3 2022. Access Holdings Plc has a BVPS of N29.11, P/BV of 0.31x and P/E ratio of 1.75x.

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Weekly Market Review & Stock Recommendations -January 16, 2023

Dear Client/Reader,

Global Economic Roundup

Oil Drops on Huge Unexpected Crude Inventory Build

Crude oil inventories rose by 14.865 million barrels, American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed on Tuesday, as refining activity begins to return to normal following previous weather-related shutdowns. U.S. crude inventories increased 13 million barrels over the course of 2022, according to API data, while crude stored in the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves sunk by 221 million barrels. Oil prices were relatively flat on Tuesday as traders take a wait-and-see attitude with upcoming rate hikes. WTI was trading up $0.54 (0.72%) on the day to $75.17 per barrel. This is a weekly increase of roughly $2 per barrel. Brent crude was trading up $0.48(0.60%) on the day at $80.13—a weekly increase of just over $2 per barrel. U.S. crude oil production rose to 12.1 million bpd in the final week of the year, bringing the total production increase for 2022 to 400,000 bpd , and 1 million bpd lower than peak production seen in March 2020

US Inflation Rate Slows to 6.5% as Expected

The annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a sixth straight month to 6.5% in December of 2022, the lowest since October of 2021, in line with market forecasts. It follows a 7.1% reading in November. Energy cost increased 7.3%, well below 13.1% in November, as gasoline cost dropped 1.5%, following a 10.1% surge in November. Also, fuel oil cost slowed (41.5% vs 65.7%) while electricity prices rose slightly faster (14.3% vs 13.7%). A slowdown was also seen in food prices (10.4% vs 10.6%) while cost of used cars and trucks continued to decline (-8.8% vs -3.3%). On the other hand, the cost of shelter increased faster (7.5% vs 7.1%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI edged 0.1% lower, the first decline since May of 2020, and beating forecasts of a flat reading. Inflation seems to have peaked at 9.1% in June of 2022 but it still remains more than three times above the Fed’s 2% target.

Weak oil sector to slow Nigeria’s economic growth in 2023

The World Bank said Nigeria’s economy will slow down to 2.9% in 2023 due to oil sector weakness. Nigeria’s economic growth is projected to decelerate to 2.9% in 2023 and remain at that pace in 2024, which is barely above population growth. According to the World Bank, growth momentum in the non-oil sector is likely to be restrained by continued weakness in the oil sector. The World Bank also noted that Nigeria’s economy weakened to 3.1% in 2022. And this was due to a number of factors, including lower crude oil, rising production costs, crude oil theft, lack of payment discipline in joint ventures, and persistent under-investment. The World Bank blames some of these challenges on the diversion of oil revenues to petrol subsidies, estimated at over 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022.

Some of our recommended stocks are mentioned below;

MTNN PLC:

MTNN Plc is projected to have a FY 2022 revenue of N2.00tn, up by 21.01% from N1.65tn in FY 2021. Profit after tax is estimated to grow from N298.65bn in FY 2021 to N361.39bn in FY 2022 with an EPS of N17.75

MTNN Plc Q3 2022 results showed an increase in revenue by 20.71% from ₦1.21 trn in Q3 2021 to ₦1.46 trn in Q3 2022. Operating profit advanced from ₦418.35bn in Q3 2021 to ₦537.68bn in Q3 2022, reflecting an increase of 28.52%. Profit before tax grew by 24.68% from ₦321.35bn in Q3 2021 to ₦400.67bn in the current period, despite a 40.10% increase in finance costs. Profit after tax rose by 22.12% from ₦220.31bn in Q3 2021 to ₦269.04bn in Q3 2022. EPS increased by 22.92% to ₦13.30 in Q3 2022 from ₦10.82 in Q3 2021. MTNN has a BVPS of ₦9.14, P/BV of 25.15x and P/E ratio of 13.42x.

GTCO PLC:

GTCO Plc is projected to have a FY 2022 revenue of N312.64bn, up by 17.14% from N266.89bn in FY 2021. Profit after tax is estimated to grow from N174.83bn in FY 2021 to N204.81bn in FY 2022 with an EPS of N6.96

Gtco Plc Q3 2022 results showed that interest income advanced by 19.20% from N195.03bn in Q3 2021 to N232.49 bn in the current period. Net interest income went up by 16.41% from N162.94 bn in Q3 2021 to N189.69 bn in Q3 2022. Profit before tax grew by 11.73% from N151.91bn in Q3 2021 to N169.72bn in the current period due to 18.27% rise in fees and commission income and 42.32% rise Net gains on financial instruments. Profit after tax went up by 0.73% from N129.40bn in Q3 2021 to N130.35bn in the current period. Consequently, Gtco recorded a 0.22% rise in earnings per share from N4.54 in Q3 2021 to N4.55 in Q3 2022. Gtco Plc has a BVPS of N29.66, P/BV of 0.82x and P/E ratio of 4.03x.

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Weekly Market Review & Stock Recommendations -January 9, 2023

Dear Client/Reader,

Global Economic Roundup

Oil Prices Plunge Below $80 As Near-Term Demand Worries Grow

Oil prices crashed early on Wednesday, with Brent Crude falling below the $80 a barrel mark again, as concerns about immediate global oil demand intensified with soaring Covid cases in China and slowing economies globally. The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, had plummeted below $75 per barrel and traded down by 2.68% at $74.91. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, dipped below $80 and the front-month contract was down by 2.70% at $79.92. The recent sell-off in oil was the result of gloomy economic expectations from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the state of the Chinese and global economy in the early weeks of 2023, and a strong U.S. dollar. Surging Covid cases in China and a slowdown in the Chinese economy are expected to weigh on oil demand and prices in the immediate term.

US Stocks Close Higher Despite Hawkish Minutes

US stocks closed marginally higher on a choppy Wednesday, as minutes from the December FOMC meeting confirmed policymakers’ previous signals that interest rates must continue to rise and remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Officials also emphasized that investors should not interpret the slower 50bps rate hike as a dovish pivot, warning markets against pricing interest rate cuts this year.

The Dow added 130 points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. In the meantime, ISM PMI data showed that factory activity in the US contracted for a second straight month, adding to investors’ skepticism that the central bank can maintain high borrowing costs without major damage. Also, US job openings fell slightly to 10.5 million in December but remained at considerably high levels.

Nigeria’s Debt to Hit 77 Trillion Naira

Nigeria’s Debt Management Office (DMO) on Thursday said that the next administration will inherit a public debt of N77 trillion if the N23 trillion loans from the CBN are securitized. In recent weeks, there have been heated debates on the sustainability of Nigeria’s debt amid shrinking revenue and mounting CBN loans. Last week, President Muhammadu Buhari requested a delayed approval for the N23.7 trillion loan that had already been spent, causing an uproar in the Senate. Lawmakers rejected the request and accused the president of violating the constitution. They also demanded details of how the money was spent. The DG of the DMO, Mrs Oniha noted that Nigeria’s total debt stock rose to N44.06 trillion as of the end of September 2022, largely reflecting the weakness of the local unit, Naira. She added, however, that should the CBN loans be added to the debt profile, the nation’s debt portfolio would increase significantly. The DMO boss added that the projected debt stock for May 2023 remains at about N5.567 trillion.

Some of our recommended stocks are mentioned below;

NB PLC:

Nigerian Breweries Plc is projected to have an FY 2022 revenue of N576.07bn, up by 31.74% from N437.28bn in FY 2021. Profit after tax is estimated to grow from N12.67bn in FY 2021 to N16.70bn in FY 2022 with an EPS of N2.06.

Nigerian Breweries Plc Q3 2022 results showed an increase in revenue by 27.21% from ₦309.28bn in Q3 2021 to ₦393.45bn in Q3 2022. Operating profit advanced from ₦24.74bn in Q3 2021 to ₦35.39bn in Q3 2022, reflecting an increase of 43.06%. Profit before tax grew by 49.89% from ₦12.74bn in Q3 2021 to ₦19.09bn in the current period, as finance income grew by 172.63% and finance cost dropped by 48.82%. Profit after tax rose by 79.58% from ₦8.22bn in Q3 2021 to ₦14.76bn in Q3 2022. EPS increased by 78.43% to ₦1.82 in Q3 2022 from ₦1.02 in Q3 2021. Nigerian Breweries has a BVPS of ₦23.06, P/BV of 1.80x, and P/E ratio of 15.45x.

WAPCO PLC:

Lafarge Africa (WAPCO) Plc is projected to have an FY 2022 revenue of N366.68bn, up by 25.11% from N293.09bn in FY 2021. Profit after tax is estimated to grow from N51.03bn in FY 2021 to N63.81bn in FY 2022 with an EPS of N3.97

Lafarge Africa (WAPCO) Plc Q3 2022 results showed that earnings advanced by 23.11% from N219.20bn in Q3 2021 to N269.85 bn in the current period. Gross profit increased by 3199% to N134.77bn in Q3 2022 from N102.11bn in Q3 2021. In a similar tune, profit before tax advanced by 22.88% from N43.90bn recorded in Q3 2021 to N53.95 bn in the current period. Likewise, profit after tax grew by 11.15% from N40.40bn in Q3 2021 to N44.90bn in Q3 2022. Consequently, Earnings per share went up by 11.16% from N2.51 in Q3 2021 to N2.79 in Q3 2022. Lafarge Africa has a BVPS of N25.29, P/BV of 0.88x and P/E ratio of 5.98x.

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Weekly Market Review & Stock Recommendations -January 3, 2023

Dear Client/Reader,

Global Economic Roundup

Global Oil Demand Could Surge In 2023

Global oil demand could soar as much as 4% in the coming year if the world manages to fully emerge from Covid restrictions, hedge fund trader Pierre Andurand has told Bloomberg. Andurand says in a tweet that oil demand may increase by 3 million to 4 million barrels a day in 2023 helped by a switch to oil from gas. Crude prices rose a few weeks ago after China unveiled the most sweeping changes to its strict Covid-19 guidelines, including relaxing testing requirements and travel restrictions. Further, people infected with Covid-19 but have only mild or no symptoms are now allowed to isolate at home instead of convalescing in centrally managed facilities.

US inflation rate slows as fuel costs fall

US inflation was 7.1% over the 12 months to the end of November, dropping from 7.7% in October, figures from the US Labour department show. That was the slowest pace in nearly a year and better than analysts expected. But though the overall picture is improving, the cost of some items such as housing continues to climb. The US central bank has raised interest rates at the fastest pace in decades the past year, in an effort to get the inflation problem under control. Earlier in December, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said that the bank would start to move less aggressively to see how the moves are playing out in the economy. By boosting borrowing costs, the Federal Reserve is expecting to dampen demand for expensive items such as homes and cars, helping to slow the economy and ease the pressures pushing up prices.

Senate urges CBN to extend withdrawal date to June 30th

The Senate has urged the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to urgently extend the withdrawal date of old currency notes from Jan. 31, 2023 to June 30. The upper chamber’s resolution was sequel to a point of order raised by Sen. Mohammed Ndume (APC-Borno) during Wednesday’s plenary. Raising Orders 41 and 51 of Senate Standing Rule, Ndume said that the call for extension of the date should be considered as a matter of urgent national importance in order to forestall imminent hardship on Nigerians. The lawmaker also said that access to the new notes would be compounded by recent circular by the CBN which limited the amount of cash withdrawal by corporate entities to withdraw within certain period of time. Contributing, Sen. Adamu Aliero (PDP-Kebbi) said that it was true that in rural areas, people were not even aware that there was going to be currency change. “So this motion is very apt and timely. If we insist on the date given by CBN, it will cause a lot of hardship for our rural dwellers.”

Some of our recommended stocks are mentioned below;

FIDSON PLC:

Fidson Q3 2022 results showed an increase in revenue by 44.48% from N21.75bn in Q3 2021 to N31.43bn in Q3 2022. Operating profit advanced from N4.29 bn in Q3 2021 to N6.35bn in Q3 2022, reflecting an increase of 48.03%. Profit before tax went up by 49.06% from N3.42bn Q3 2021 to N5.10bn in the current period. Profit after tax grew by 47.97% from N2.32bn in Q3 2021 to N3.44bn in Q3 2022. EPS grew by 35.14% to N1.50 in Q3 2022 from N1.11 in Q3 2021. Fidson has a BVPS of N5.92, P/BV of 1.52x and P/E ratio of 4.50x.

TRANSCORP PLC:

Transnational Corporation Plc Q3 2022 results showed that revenue grew by 12.45% from ₦85.59bn in Q3 2021 to ₦96.24bn in Q3 2022. Gross profit went up by 18.63% to ₦46.70bn in Q3 2022 from ₦39.36bn in Q3 2021. Operating profit advanced by 14.53% from ₦27.52bn in Q3 2021 to ₦31.52bn in Q3 2022. Profit before tax rose by 47.71% to ₦20.87bn in Q3 2022 from ₦14.12bn in Q3 2021, on the back of a 29.29% increase in Other Income and 14.91% decline in net finance cost. In the same vein, profit after tax grew by 41.38% from ₦13.47bn in Q3 2021 to ₦19.04 bn in Q3 2022. Consequently, earnings per share rose to ₦0.22 in the current period from ₦0.18 in Q3 2021. Transcorp Plc has a BVPS of ₦3.87, P/BV of 0.28x and P/E ratio of 3.65x.

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Weekly Market Review & Stock Recommendations – November 28, 2022

Dear Client/Reader,

Global Economic Roundup

Global oil market signals short-term weakness ahead of EU ban on Russian oil

The global oil market is signalling a potential shift, as traders and analysts worry about reduced crude demand and an oversupplied market in the coming months. After months of strength, crude futures are flirting with lows not seen all year as top oil consumer China enters additional COVID-19 lockdowns while central banks hike interest rates to combat inflation. Front-month global oil prices in the last week have traded weaker than future-dated contracts, while prices for physical crude grades throughout the world have declined, market participants said. “Differentials are confirming what outright prices have been implying – there is a demand deficit and/or supply surplus,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. On Dec. 5, a European Union ban on Russian crude imports is set to start, along with a plan by the G7 nations to force shippers to comply with a price cap on Russian oil sales.

UK to be second weakest performer of world’s big economies next year – OECD

The UK will be the second weakest performer of the world’s big economies next year as the global economy continues to suffer the knock-on effects of the biggest energy shock in four decades, a leading international institution has warned. The Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said only Russia of the members of the G20 group of leading developed and developing nations would suffer a bigger contraction than Britain in 2023. In its half-yearly economic outlook, the OECD said the UK economy would expand by 4.4% this year – the sixth fastest rate in the G20 – but contract by 0.4% next year. Although most countries have had their growth forecasts cut by the OECD since June, only Russia’s 5.6% contraction is forecast to be more severe than Britain’s. The poor performance is forecast to continue in 2024 with expansion of 0.2% – the joint weakest alongside Russia.

Annual UK-study expenses hits $2.5bn amid forex scarcity

The Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele, has said annual foreign exchange outflow on study-related to the UK has hit to about $2.5bn as visa applications increased. He also said the official foreign exchange receipt from crude oil sales into the official reserves of the country had dried up, but that the CBN had introduced measures to boost forex earnings through non-oil export which was already yielding results. Some of our recommended stocks are mentioned below;

MTNN PLC:

MTNN Plc Q3 2022 results showed an increase in revenue by 20.71% from ₦1.21trn in Q3 2021 to ₦1.46trn in Q3 2022. Operating profit advanced from ₦418.35bn in Q3 2021 to ₦537.68bn in Q3 2022, reflecting an increase of 28.52%. Profit before tax grew by 24.68% from ₦321.35bn in Q3 2021 to ₦400.67bn in the current period, despite a 40.10% increase in finance costs. Profit after tax rose by 22.12% from ₦220.31bn in Q3 2021 to ₦269.04bn in Q3 2022. EPS increased by 22.92% to ₦13.30 in Q3 2022 from ₦10.82 in Q3 2021. MTNN has a BVPS of ₦13.24, P/BV of 15.03x and P/E ratio of 11.11x. 

UCAP PLC:

United Capital’s result for Q3’2022 showed that gross earnings increased by 28.40% from N11.33 bn in Q3’2021 to N14.55 bn in Q3’2022. Net operating income rose by 21.80% from N11.07 bn in Q3’2021 to N13.50 bn in Q3’2022. Profit before tax rose by 24.17% from N7.09 bn in Q3’2021 to N8.81 bn in the current period. Profit after tax increased by 29.34% to N7.71 bn in the current period from N5.97 bn in Q3’2021. Consequently, Earnings per share went up by 28.57% from N1.33 in Q3’2021 to N1.71 in the current period. UCAP has a BVPS of N3.61, P/BV of 1.73x and P/E ratio of 4.96x.

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