Dear Client/Reader,
Global Economic Roundup
Oil Price Rally Buoyed by Signs of Stronger Demand and Subdued Supply
• The price of oil trades to fresh yearly highs as the decline in US crude inventories boosts the outlook for consumption, and the ongoing efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may keep crude prices afloat as Saudi Arabia remains on track to reduce supply by 1 million b/d until April.
US economy adds 49,000 jobs as Biden aims for further Covid relief
• The US economy added back 49,000 jobs last month as coronavirus restrictions eased and fiscal stimulus from Washington goosed up the economy, the labor department announced on Friday.
World Bank to boost Nigeria’s power distribution with $500 million
• The World Bank has approved $500 million to support Nigeria in improving electricity distribution in the country. This was disclosed by the global financial institution firm via a statement seen by Friday.
• In the statement, Shubham Chaudhuri, World Bank’s Country Director, explained that the project will help boost electricity access by improving the performance of the Electricity Distribution Companies (DisCos) through a large-scale metering program desired by Nigerians for a long time.
Equities Market
The Nigerian Bourse closed bearish last week as the ASI declined by 1.66% week-on-week to close at 41,709.09 points. Year-to-date returns closed at 3.57% at the end of the week.
Some of our recommended stocks are mentioned below;
FLOURMILL Plc – Flourmill Plc. Q3’2020 results for the period ended December 2020 showed that revenue grew by 31.14% from N423.48 bn in Q3’2019 to N555.34 bn in Q3’2020. Similarly, gross profit went up by 51.47% to N72.45 bn in Q3’2020 from N47.83 bn in Q3’2019. The growth in gross profit was driven by the rise in revenue. Profit from operations advanced by 42.66% from N24.68 bn in Q3’2019 to N35.21 bn in Q3’2020, despite a 5.54% and 6.28% increase in selling and distribution and administrative expenses. Profit before tax rose by 92.08% to N23.61 bn in Q3’2020 from N12.29 bn in Q3’2019, on the back of a 356.87% rise in investment income. Profit after tax grew by 90.94% from N8.16 bn in Q3’2019 to N15.58 bn in Q3’2020. Consequently, earnings per share rose by 109.24%, from N1.84 in Q3’2019 to N3.85 in Q3’2020. Flourmill has a BVPS of N40.40, P/BV of 0.78x and P/E ratio of 8.17x.
Flourmill has proven to be immune to the negative impacts of the pandemic, as the company’s strong product offerings in the value segments and their cost optimization strategies, helped offset the impact of the weakening consumer spending in the economy, disruptions to the supply chain and the existing currency risks in their export segment. Accordingly, their Food, Agro Allied and Sugar revenue segments grew by 12%, 29% and 12%, respectively, as the company continues to deepen their market share amidst competing brands. Hence, we expect their 2020 PAT to move to N18.00 billion, taking the EPS above N4.38.
WAPCO – Lafarge Africa Plc. Q3’2020 results showed that revenue grew by 10.32% from N163.06 bn in Q3’2019 to N179.88 bn in Q3’2020. Similarly, gross profit went up by 9.46% to N56.12 bn in Q3’2020 from N51.27 bn in Q3’2019. The growth in gross profit was driven by the growth in revenue. Profit from operations rose by 15.68% from N35.54 bn in Q3’2019 to N41.11 bn in Q3’2020, due to an 0.81% and 11.85% decline in administrative expenses and selling and distribution expense, respectively. Profit before tax grew by 70.27% to N34.29 bn in Q3’2020 from N20.14 bn in Q3’2019, on the back of a 54.51% decline in finance cost. Profit after tax rose by 37.05% from N20.57 bn in Q3’2019 to N28.20 bn in Q3’2020, despite a 1,504.38% increase in taxes. Consequently, earnings per share decreased by 76.54%, from N7.46 in Q3’2019 to N1.75 in Q3’2020. Wapco has a BVPS of N22.16 P/BV of 0.84x and P/E ratio of 10.69x.
Wapco is expected to shield itself from the adverse impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, as the company has been able to sustain their revenue during the lockdown by leveraging an organized price increase of their cement product to fill the shortfalls left by reduced demands. This aggressive revenue growth strategy has also been met with effective cost reduction tactics, both of which will support a full year growth similar to what was seen the first three quarters of the year. Accordingly, we expect to see the PAT cross N30.00 billion, hence, taking the EPS above N1.86.
Please find here our Weekly Market Review & Stock Recommendations for this week.