Author - mbcfin

2021 Macroeconomic and Investment Outlook: A Glimmer of Hope

Dear Client/Reader, 

Kindly find attached our 2021 Macroeconomic and Investment Outlook “A Glimmer of Hope” to guide your investment decisions in 2021.

Below is our executive summary.

World powers and economies suffered deep recessions and economic rebounds within the space of months as financial markets plunged sharply in 2020 as a result of the pandemic. However, research breakthroughs on a medical solution to the Covid19 virus has been approved, and this holds the promise of a growth rebound in 2021. We expect a vaccine rollout in Q1’21, with the hope that normalcy can return to many countries. In addition, a more cordial and diplomatic relationship between the US and the rest of the world could positively influence global macroeconomic risks to the upside, enabling many countries to get back on the path of growth.

The World Bank projects that the global economy will expand by 4% in 2021, with the immediate policy priorities focused on controlling the spread of coronavirus and ensuring rapid and widespread vaccine deployment as well as strategic investments.

The Nigerian economy is projected to grow by 1.1% this year according to the World Bank. In 2021, we expect GDP growth to be buoyed by increased economic activity and some improvements in the oil market. Also sentiment for stocks depends on the direction of monetary policy, particularly in relation to the yield environment. A sharp reversal of rates is likely to trigger a sell-off in the equities market,

Accordingly, our projection for the Nigerian stock market in 2021 is that domestic interest, fueled by dividend expectations, is likely to sustain the market rally in Q1-2021. However, in the absence of foreign demand, we see a short-term bear market from Q2 to Q3-2021.

With over N5.1 trillion expected to mature in 2021 liquidity in the system will increase further. We expect that yields on CBN Bills alongside other rates will remain low in the early part of the year. However, we believe regulators will make efforts to increase rates in order to attract foreign capital into the economy. This will materialize in H2 2021. As the economy recovers; the market will experience improved activities in the year.

We envisage a year of significant positive return in the equity market and improved yields in the fixed income market. Our model portfolio projects such opportunities. 

Please click here to view our model portfolio for 2021.

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Vacancy: Senior Operations Officer

Vacancy: Senior Operations Officer (Senior Analyst to Associate Grade)

Division: Securities Trading Division

Job Purpose: To provide operations support for the firm’s investment and asset management business and ensure the integrity of the firms process flows

Job Background: The role of Operations officer will report to the Group Head of Support Services and will manage a core team involved in equities and fixed income operations and support services.

Job Responsibilities:

  • Managing an operations team including other professionals
  • Process flow of all trade transactions on NSE, NASD, FMDQ etc.
  • Process flow of transactions with counter parties in OTC transactions
  • Maintenance of all relevant client and operations records as required by the NSE MOS and SEC rules.
  • Maintaining the integrity of the firm’s operational processes and

Job Development Value:

Candidates can look forward to rapid promotion and higher challenges within the firm based on individual performance.

Required Skills:

  • Good knowledge of investment and investment products and operational processes
  • Strong numerate and analytical skills.
  • Excellent verbal and written communication skills.
  • Creativity and innovation
  • Flexibility and ability to work under pressure.
  • Good planning and effective workflow management to meet deadlines.
  • Team leadership experience

Required Qualifications:

  • Minimum of 2nd class degree or HND with Upper credit in economics/ finance related subjects. Professional qualifications such as ACA, CFA, ACIB, ACS and or an MBA will be a clear advantage.
  • Minimum of 5 years’ experience in the operations department of a broker/dealer firm.
  • Securities and exchange commission (SEC) registration as a sponsored individual will be a clear advantage.

Required Competencies:

  • Analytical
  • Strong communication skills
  • Good relationship building skills
  • Initiative
  • Adaptability
  • Leadership
  • Products Knowledge

Compensation:

Compensation is based on industry standards and will include a base pay and generous performance bonus.

Loyalty bonuses will also apply for staff that remains with the company for more than three years.

CV and application to be sent to the following email addresses:

iobanefe@mbcgroup.com.ng

odada@mbcgroup.com.ng

oayoade@mbcgroup.com.ng

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Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan MBC Securities

The Economic Sustainability Committee set up in March investigated the economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and sought to develop a clear economic sustainability plan in response to the economic crisis. The report from the committee however revealed the grim economic reality that the economy is presented with, underscored by huge revenue pitfalls and heightened unemployment projections. Nevertheless, the report recommended policy measures that could be implemented to avert a deep recession.

Economic Challenges Posed by the Covid-19 Pandemic
According to the report, the Covid-19 pandemic has severely disturbed the domestic economy, disrupting supply chains and causing massive job losses. One distressing outcome of the pandemic is the crash of crude oil prices, given that crude oil accounts for 50% of consolidated government revenues, 30% of banking sector credit and 90% of export earnings. Therefore, such a decline in oil price coupled with the inability to sell our rising crude inventory has resulted into large budgetary gaps, and also brought about the depletion of our dollar earnings, hence, forcing a depreciation of the Naira, resulting into an uptick in prices – mostly of imported goods.

Please find attached our full report

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Inflation Increased by 12.56% in June 2020; 0.16% higher than May 2020 (12.40%) Rate

Dear Client/Reader,

The National Bureau of Statistics just reported that the consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 12.56% (year-on-year) in June 2020. This is 16 basis points higher than the rate recorded in May 2020 (12.40%).

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending June 2020 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 11.90%, indicating 0.11 points increase from 11.79% recorded in May 2020.

Please find attached our full report

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Nigeria Records GDP Growth of 1.87% in Q1’2020 lower than 2.10% in Q1’2019

Dear Client/Reader,

The National Bureau of Statistics just released the first quarter 2020 GDP report.

According to the report, the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.87% (year-on-year) in real terms.

This growth in Q1’2020 is 0.23% points lower than the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (2.10%) and 68 basis points lower than the rate recorded in Q4’2019 (2.55%). In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N35.65 trillion in nominal terms. This represents 12.01% year on year increase in nominal GDP when compared to the corresponding quarter of 2019 (N31.82 trillion). The nominal GDP growth rate in Q1’2020 was higher than the rate recorded in Q1’2019 by 0.11%.

Please find attached our full report

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SEPLAT Plc Declares Loss After Tax of N37.78 Billion in HY’2020

The HY’2020 result for Seplat Plc revealed that revenue declined by 26.49% from N108.97 bn recorded in HY’2019 to N80.11 bn in the current period. Similarly, gross profit went down by 79.67% from N63.53 bn in HY’2019 to N12.92 bn in HY’2020. The decline in gross profit derived from the drop in revenue, and from a 47.88% rise in cost of sales. The firm reported an operating loss of N38.71 bn in HY’2020, coming from a
profit position of N42.68 bn in HY’2019, reflecting a decline of 190.71%. The sharp fall seen in the operating profit can be traced to a 26.48% surge in the general and administrative expenses and a N50.09 bn impairment loss on non-financial assets. Consequently, profit before tax declined by 234.86% from N36.96 bn in HY’2019
to -N49.84 bn in HY’2020, on the back of a 66.80% drop in finance income and a 64.73% rise in finance cost.

In a similar fashion, the company recorded a loss after tax of N37.78 bn in HY’2020 as against a profit of N37.50 bn recorded in HY’2019, reflecting a decline of 200.76%. Accordingly, earnings per share went down by 199.09% from N65.92 in HY’2019 to -N65.32 in HY’2020. The stock currently trades at N310.2.

Please find attached our full report

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FBNH Plc. Posts 23.84% PAT Growth in HY’2020

FBNH Plc HY’2020 results showed an increase in the bottom-line as profit for the period grew by 23.84%. Interest income however declined by 4.31% from N216.76 bn in HY’2019 to N207.42 bn in the current period.

Net interest income went down by 7.35% from N141.69 bn in HY’2019 to N131.28 bn in HY’2020, due to the drop in interest income and a 1.44% increase in interest expense. The company recorded a 14.70% increase in operating profit from N36.23 bn in HY’2019 to N41.55 bn in the current period. The increase in operating profit is attributable to a 16.41% and 183.05% increase in net fees and commission income and trading income,
respectively. Also, impairment charges increased by 38.65% from N22.11 bn in HY’2019 to N30.65 bn in HY’2020. Profit before tax advanced by 14.26% from N36.25 bn in HY’2019 to N41.42 bn in the current period. Profit after tax went up by 23.84% from N28.78 bn in HY’2019 to N35.65 bn in the current period.

Consequently, the company recorded a 60.71% increase in EPS to N1.35 in HY’2020 from N0.84 in HY’2019. FBNH currently trades at N5.00.

Please find attached our full report

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Unilever Nigeria Plc Reports 115% PAT Decline in HY-2020 MBC Securities

Unilever Nigeria Plc. HY’2020 results showed that revenue declined by 35.91% from N42.66 bn in HY’2019 to N27.34 bn in the current period. This decline was due to the slowdown witnessed in both their food products and home/personal care revenue sources, as their performance was hampered by the weakened purchasing power of consumers in the economy. Similarly, gross profit fell by 45.74% to N6.16 bn in HY’2020 from
N11.35 bn in HY’2019, despite a 32.35% decline in cost of sales. The firm recorded a decline of 136.62% in operating profit from N3.85 bn in HY’2019 to -N1.41 bn in the current period, and this was majorly driven by a 196.80% increase in impairment loss. Profit before tax declined by 112.07% to -N566.80 mn in the current period from N4.70 bn in HY’2019, due a 29.33% decline in finance income. Consequently, profit after tax fell by 114.77% from N3.52 bn in HY’2019 to -N519.11 mn in the current period. The firm recorded an 114.75% decline in earnings per share from N0.61 in HY’2019 to -N0.09 in the current period. The stock currently trades at N12.25.

Please find attached our full report

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Unilever Nigeria Plc Reports 115% PAT Decline in HY-2020 MBC Securities

Unilever Nigeria Plc. HY’2020 results showed that revenue declined by 35.91% from N42.66 bn in HY’2019 to N27.34 bn in the current period. This decline was due to the slowdown witnessed in both their food products and home/personal care revenue sources, as their performance was hampered by the weakened purchasing power of consumers in the economy. Similarly, gross profit fell by 45.74% to N6.16 bn in HY’2020 from
N11.35 bn in HY’2019, despite a 32.35% decline in cost of sales. The firm recorded a decline of 136.62% in operating profit from N3.85 bn in HY’2019 to -N1.41 bn in the current period, and this was majorly driven by a 196.80% increase in impairment loss. Profit before tax declined by 112.07% to -N566.80 mn in the current period from N4.70 bn in HY’2019, due a 29.33% decline in finance income. Consequently, profit after tax fell by 114.77% from N3.52 bn in HY’2019 to -N519.11 mn in the current period. The firm recorded an 114.75% decline in earnings per share from N0.61 in HY’2019 to -N0.09 in the current period. The stock currently trades at N12.25

Please find attached our full report

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UCAP Plc. HY’2020- Profit after tax went up by 16% to N1.91 bn

United Capital’s result for HY’2020 showed that gross earnings increased by 37.26% from N3.24 bn in HY’2019 to N4.45 bn in HY’2020. Net operating income rose by 45.40% from N2.82 bn in HY’2019 to N4.10 bn in HY’2020, due to a 347.65%, 85.03% and 77.15% increase in net interest margin, net trading income and fees and commission income, respectively. Profit before tax rose by 14.10% from N1.99 bn in HY’2019 to N2.27 bn in the current period, despite the surge in key expenditure line items, such as the personnel expenses which rose by 7.86%, and the other operating expense which increased by 87.73%. Profit after tax increased by 15.98% to N1.91 bn in the current
period from N1.65 bn in HY’2019. Consequently, Earnings per share went up by 14.29% from N0.28 in HY’2019 to N0.32 in the current period.

Please find attached our full report

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