Dear Client/Reader,
Global Economic Roundup
Oil Prices Rise Amid Prospect of Widespread Fuel Shortfalls
Signs of a global energy crunch pushed up oil prices as markets grappled with the prospect of widespread fuel shortfalls heading into the end of the year. Brent crude, the world benchmark, touched $80 per barrel on Tuesday, reaching a three-year high. Goldman Sachs forecast on Sunday that Brent would hit $90 (approximately €77) a barrel before the end of the year, up from its previous call for $80 (€68). A shortfall in global gas production, along with a concerted drive in China to cut down on pollution from heavy industry, is expected to push crude higher as industries shift to using oil to generate power.
China Power Crunch Is Next Economic Shock After Evergrande
China may be diving head first into a power supply shock that could hit Asia’s largest economy hard just as the Evergrande crisis sends shockwaves through its financial system. The crackdown on power consumption is being driven by rising demand for electricity and surging coal and gas prices as well as strict targets from Beijing to cut emissions. Economists are warning of lower economic growth in China as electricity shortages worsen, forcing businesses to cut back on production. The crisis is also beginning to hit people where they live, adding the risk of social instability on top of potential global supply chain disruptions.
Naira Depreciates At Official Window Despite a 266% Increase In Dollar Supply
The exchange rate between the naira and the US dollar closed at N414.73/$1, at the official Investors and Exporters window. Naira depreciated against the US dollar on Wednesday, to close at N414.73/$1, representing a 0.06% drop when compared to N414.50/$1 recorded on Tuesday 28th September 2021. Meanwhile, the exchange rate at the parallel market closed at N574/$1 on Tuesday. The naira fell at the official market despite a massive 266.2% increase in dollar supply. The local currency is still hitting record lows against the US dollar at the black market despite the news of Nigeria’s Eurobond sales which is meant to boost the nation’s external reserves.
Some of our recommended stocks are mentioned below;
ACCESS PLC:
Access Bank Plc is projected to have a Q3 2021 interest income of N447.79bn, up by 19.32% from N375.28bn in Q3 2020. PAT is estimated to increase from N102.30bn in Q3 2020 to N122.07bn in Q3 2021, bringing the EPS up to N3.43. Access Plc Q2 2021 showed that interest income advanced by 29.59% from N246.72bn in Q2 2020 to N319.73bn in the current period. Net interest income went up 58.52% from N126.21bn in Q2 2020 to N200bn in Q2 2021. Profit before tax advanced by 31.21% from N74.31bn in Q2 2020 to N97.5bn in the current period. Profit after tax went up by 42.44% from N61.03bn in Q2 2020 to N86.94bn in the current period. Consequently, Access recorded a 43.35% rise in earnings per share from N1.73 in Q2 2020 to N2.48 in Q2 2021. Access has a BVPS of N21.82, P/BV of 0.42x and P/E ratio of 1.84x.
DANGSUGAR PLC:
Dangsugar Plc is projected to have a Q3 2021 revenue of N216.11bn, up by 34.64% from N160.51bn in Q3 2020. PAT is estimated to increase from N26.63bn in Q3 2020 to N35.85bn in Q3 2021, bringing the EPS up to N2.95. Dangsugar Plc’s result for Q2’2021 showed that revenue increased from N103.23bn in Q2 2020 to N131.95bn in Q2 2021 by 28%. Operating profit also increased by 35% from N17.39bn in Q2’2020 to N23.48bn in Q2 2021. Net finance expense increased by 224% from N1.47bn in Q2’2020 to N4.79bn in Q2’2021. Profit before tax rose by 10% from N17 bn in Q2’2020 to N18.75bn in the current period. Profit after tax increased by 9% to N12.6bn in Q2 2021 from N11.5bn in Q2 2020. Consequently, Earnings per share increased by 7% from N0.97 in Q2’2020 to N1.04 in the current period. Dangsugar Plc has a BVPS of N9.80, P/BV of 1.78x and P/E ratio of 8.37x.
Please find here our Weekly Market Review & Stock Recommendations for this week.